Is My Car Fast? Time Distributions and Percentiles

General discussions for car and semi-truck racers.
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BallBoy
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Is My Car Fast? Time Distributions and Percentiles

Post by BallBoy »

“My car ran a 3.xx. Is my car fast?” is a question that is occasionally posted on this forum. This post is intended to provide some information for some racers that ask this question and is intended to show speeds across a typical Cub Scout population.

The setup:
1. 42’ BestTrack. The 42’ has 4 straight sections, with the timer sitting at the end of the fourth section). Actual running length is 36’ 10 7/8” as measured from the uphill side of start pin to finish line sensor (in last of the punched holes on the track). At each location the track was checked for level at each track joint using a torpedo level.
2. MicroWizard K2 timer connected to computer using serial to USB port
3. Data captured by GPRM version 10 running in Windows 7.

Information about car population:
Data set is comprised of 1,452 runs from 201 cars from 12 different packs. Rules were not consistent from pack to pack, though most used the rules in the box. Packs were consistent in having a 5 oz limit as measured on that Pack’s scale. The population was made up of cars you would see at a typical Cub Scout pinewood derby and included everything from 3-wheel, well-tuned rail riders to cars that had none of the usual speed techniques applied. All cars were gravity powered. There were no razor- or bearing-wheels. Nearly all used BSA wheels, while a small handful used PineCar wheels.

Data was grouped by the hundredth of a second (0.01) by rounding up to the nearest 0.01. A time of 3.2001 seconds would fall into the 3.21 group and a time of 3.1999 would fall into the 3.20 group. Times that exceeded 4.0 seconds and cars that did not finish (DNF) were grouped into the 4.00 group. There were no times in the population that were faster than 3.00 seconds.

The following chart shows the distribution of race times. The most frequently occurring time, or mode, is 3.17 seconds. The mode marked the 90th percentile, meaning that 90% of the runs had a time of 3.1700 or slower and 10% had a time of 3.1699 or faster.

Image

This chart shows where specific times show up in the top 50th percentile. The 95th percentile is between 3.14 and 3.15 seconds, meaning that if your car’s times can beat 3.14 seconds then you are faster than 95% of cars found at a typical Cub Scout race.

Image

Please note that competition in your pack or district may not be that of a typical Cub Scout pinewood derby.

To those who have other datasets, either for BestTrack or other tracks, please share what you have.
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PWD
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Re: Is My Car Fast? Time Distributions and Percentiles

Post by PWD »

Have to be careful comparing times on tracks. We are a good example. Our personal track is a 49' Best Track that we run in both 49' and 42' configurations. We have two timers that we use on track. The type of timer and start mechanism for the timer will make a significant difference on time. The records on our track when configured 42' are 3.0211 with the NewBold timer and 3.063 with the other timer. This was with the same car, same run. This same car ran 2.950 (average four runs) on a different 42' BestTrack and did a little under 2.9 on a Pianadosi Freedoom. This difference was not a one time but has been that way for the last 8 years. BTW, we have relatively liberal rules so pretty fast times.

I have never been able to figure out why our track is so slow. But it is consistent so have given up trying to change. Changing it now would also make all of our past data invalid which would be a big problem.

My track is also not the norm and the data you have is in my experience much more consistent with other 42' Best Tracks. But did want to put our situation out there.

I do know that a electronic start switch such as reed or magnetic will make the track slower than a mechanical start switch. It flips quicker. We also ran on a 42' Best track with a laser start and the times were a lot quicker. The laser does not get triggered until broken so the cars will have much faster timers.
68sportcoupe
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Re: Is My Car Fast? Time Distributions and Percentiles

Post by 68sportcoupe »

this was our first year with the best track 42'.
i set it up and leveled it and this is where you can get discrepancies.
when i was levelling the track i ended up putting some 1/2" plywood under the the first two sets of feet (levelers) becouse i started at the finish line witch was the high spot on the floor and by the time i got to the start gate i didnt have enough adjustment the plywood helped but i think i could of added a little more i was concerned with the transittion being smooth and not like a ramp or jump so the more i raised it the better it was but also the more you raise it the faster the cars would go ive noticed a lot of people set the track up but dont try very hard to make all the gaps perfect.
i just put my (ocd) to work and all worked out well.
AlabamaDan
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Re: Is My Car Fast? Time Distributions and Percentiles

Post by AlabamaDan »

Thanks BallBoy. We have the same track configurations so for fun I can compare tomorrow's race to your study. I"ll npost up info next week.
rpcarpe
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Re: Is My Car Fast? Time Distributions and Percentiles

Post by rpcarpe »

Ballboy,
Thanks for the measurement of the track, I've been remembering the wrong number, 39'.

We set up a 42' Best Track last night for races tomorrow... closed and leveled all the gaps. What a pain.
We ran a kids car at 2.99. 3.0x was the old record until last year. With the new wheels and 'improved' rules you'll usually need 2.9x to place.
Other Packs with slower rules hardly ever (probably 95%!) get to 3.0.
My wife started a new support group... Widows of the Pinewood Derby.
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