Can we predict where the times might ever end up in the Modified? One way to do it is to put a regression line to the existing times and forecast into the future. This gives a chart that looks like this and would not predict a wall with the existing data. It shows times ever decreasing as the builders get more precise. This is not satisfactory because we all know there is a limit at some point. This would predict a sub 18 sec series around April 2006.
A more satisfactory way to look at the data is to first look at the raw data and see if it resolves into groups, and then look at the groups to see if this gives any clues.
So we see from a look at all the raw data that three groups emerge for more study.
In the very fastest group, we have only three cars (Puma, Shotgun and 2nd Chance). Next is group two with a number of exceptional cars, and finally group three of early winners that showed very fast improvement due to increasing competition.
This shows that Puma could run an 18.01 the next time out if the track is “Hot”. It also shows that in the absence of a technological breakthrough, the Wall is just over 18. for the three fastest cars, and back at 18.2-18.3 for the typical “master” builder.
A breakthrough would be a car with less drag, magic lube, or new axel technique. From the looks of the distributions, all the top cars have good alignment. The problem is, do you align to a perfectly level test track? Will a ball bearing roll slowly down the flat from a few inches up the ramp without hitting the rail, or wandering to the other rail? An then it gets run on the WIRL track. Does this track get shimmed for five hours or so until it is laser level? With the possible exception of an ice rink, there are few really level places to put up a track. So, was the “hot” track of August a perfectly level track, which we will see only on occasion? Has someone discovered that if he aims to have his down wheel just slightly hit the center guide on his test track, he gets lower times when run on the typical WIRL track? Would he then drop in time if the track is “hot” again? An interesting experiment would be to get two identical cars( easy for me to say) and shim one to run with a drift to the right, and one with a drift to the left, and equal times on a perfectly level track. Then run on WIRL and tell everyone the results. Another experiment would be to run this car with adjustable steering over and over until it had reached a minimum time on the “typical” WIRL track.
Then epoxy the axel in place and test to see that it still ran “perfect”. Now, if we all could borrow this test car and run it from a slow start, a few inches up the ramp of our test track, we could see where to align our direction to give us a better chance of lowest times on the WIRL track.
